13 January 2021

Making Book at the Venetian

Thanks to the death of its owner, a long-time Heffalump donor, that's where I'm going to propose that the "sports book" be established for sane Heffalump Senators — those with the spine, self-awareness, and integrity to vote to convict The Orange One for high crimes and misdemeanors as described in his second bill of impeachment (and not subject to factual controversy — only politicolegal interpretation). Of course, it won't be Senator Hawley's book — at least not from S&S.

Just think about that: Second impeachment. Better yet, don't think about it.

Last time around — all of two years ago — the House's Heffalump sanity rate was zero; the Senate's Heffalump sanity rate was just under 1%. Senator Romney demonstrated that he is half sane by voting in favor of one article (but, interestingly, voting against the article directly pertaining to Congress). It's a bit more interesting this time, and perhaps a bit more Vegas-friendly; the House's Heffalumps demonstrated a sanity rate of just about 5% (10 out of 207), translating to an expectation of 5-6% of the Senate — 2½–3 Heffalump votes to convict.

So if you're thinking of a side wager, place your sports-book bets at the Venetian on the "over" for 2½ Heffalump votes to convict…

Maybe "sanity" isn't the right way to frame this, although it's sure shorter than "capable of upholding the oath of office and therefore possibly — just possibly — fit to be an elected official."