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[self-portrait]Scrivener's Error Law and reality in publishing (seldom the same thing) from the author's side of the slush pile, with occasional forays into military affairs, censorship and the First Amendment, legal theory, and anything else that strikes me as interesting.
02 January 2012

link to: 10:42 [GMT-6]

Beginning of the End of the World News

 

It is 2012 now, after all. It's not just the Mayans; it's also Nostradamus. And an unjustly underappreciated Anthony Burgess novel. And if the incessant blathering of the Heffalumps isn't enough to make one wish for the end of the world, I don't know what will be...


  1. Two observations:

    • Just because it's got numbers associated with it doesn't make it mathematically sound. If you want a classic example, consider net-present-value calculations, which are no better than the multiple assumptions built into them about interest rates, uniform time-value, opportunity cost, etc.
    • Then, too, there's the issue of royalty obligations and predictability. If one believes publisher accounting, or even the stark evidence of publisher royalty statements and the absence of checks attached thereto, the "vast majority" of books never end up paying royalties to authors; instead, royalty earnings chew away at the advance, which all too often remains as out of reach as the tree is to Xeno's arrow. For example, if one accepts the industry meme that 80% of books never earn out their advances, a particular sales cannibalization within an imprint — or even across imprints within the same conglomerate — has a (0.80)2 = 64% chance of not increasing the actual publisher outlay to any author. Only when sales aggregate do they result in such payments... and that demonstrates the quantum effect of royalty calculations. (Unfortunately, my HTML-fu is not good enough to accurately represent the underlying math.)

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